Apple's foldable iPhone could lose nearly $1,300 in value in first year, study finds

At a glance:

• A rumored $2,000 foldable iPhone could lose up to $1,292 in value within 12 months based on current depreciation trends.
• Foldable smartphones lose an average of 64.6% of their value annually, far worse than the 55.3% loss for traditional phones.
• Apple's own iPhone 16 lineup historically retains 51.5% of value after a year, significantly better than typical foldable retention of 35.4%.

What the resale data reveals

A new analysis from SellCell examines how quickly flagship smartphones lose value in the secondary market, finding that foldable devices are facing a particularly steep depreciation cliff. The resale platform studied 12-month resale performance across major manufacturers including Apple, Samsung, Google, Motorola, and OnePlus, revealing that foldables are losing ground faster than any other smartphone category.

According to the data, owners of foldable phones lose an average of $997.69 after a year, compared with $605.32 for traditional smartphone owners—a gap of $392.37. This translates to foldables retaining just 35.4% of their launch value after 12 months, while non-folding phones hold onto 44.7%. The numbers suggest that buyers of foldable technology are absorbing significantly higher costs of ownership through rapid value erosion.

The study specifically modeled what would happen if Apple's first foldable iPhone—rumored to be called the "iPhone Ultra" and expected alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup in fall 2026—launched at around $2,000. At the average foldable depreciation rate, the device would be worth approximately $708 after a year, representing a loss of roughly $1,292. This projection assumes the device follows current market patterns rather than benefiting from Apple's typical resale strength.

Apple's resale advantage

Despite the concerning projections for a foldable iPhone, SellCell notes that Apple has historically outperformed competitors when it comes to maintaining device value. In its most recent analysis of the iPhone 16 lineup, the company found that Apple retained the strongest resale value among major manufacturers, with the devices holding 51.5% of their value after 12 months. This performance placed Apple ahead of OnePlus at 46.8%, Google at 40.8%, Samsung at 39.5%, and Motorola at 24.5%.

If a foldable iPhone were to match the iPhone 16's depreciation rate instead of typical foldable performance, SellCell estimates the device could be worth around $1,030 after a year—more than $300 better than a standard foldable's projected value. Even more encouraging, the base iPhone 16 retained 51.4% of its value after a year, while the 256GB iPhone 16 Pro Max retained 56.4%. However, even at these stronger rates, a $2,000 device would still see approximately $1,000 in losses over 12 months.

These figures suggest that while Apple's foldable iPhone may face the same fundamental challenges affecting all foldable devices—bulk, mechanical complexity, and niche appeal—it could still fare better in the resale market than Android alternatives thanks to the iPhone's established reputation for retaining value.

Market implications and what to watch

The depreciation data arrives as Apple appears poised to enter the foldable smartphone market, with multiple supply chain reports indicating mass production challenges for the iPhone Ultra. The device is expected to feature a foldable display and represent Apple's first venture into this form factor, potentially launching alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max in fall 2026.

For consumers considering a foldable purchase, the resale data presents a significant financial consideration. The $392 average gap in depreciation costs between foldables and traditional phones means that over a typical upgrade cycle, foldable owners are paying substantially more for the technology. This cost differential may be particularly relevant for early adopters who plan to upgrade within two years.

Market observers will be watching how Apple addresses these concerns when the foldable iPhone launches. The company could potentially mitigate some depreciation through improved build quality, longer software support commitments, or trade-in programs designed to ease the transition for existing iPhone users. Additionally, the actual market reception—including pre-order numbers and initial resale listings—will provide the first real data points on how Apple's entry affects overall foldable depreciation trends.

The broader implication is that until foldable technology becomes more mainstream and manufacturing scales improve, buyers should expect significant value erosion. This reality may influence Apple's pricing strategy and positioning, particularly if the company wants to avoid the steep depreciation curves that have characterized the Android foldable market since Samsung first introduced the category nearly a decade ago.